NZD/USD Forecast Poll
The FXStreet Forecast Poll about NZD/USD ( New Zealand Dollar US Dollar) is a sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts’ near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday’s 15:00 GMT price.
How to Read the Forecast Poll charts
This chart informs about the average forecast prices, and also how close (or far apart) sit the numbers from all participants surveyed that week. The bigger a bubble on the chart means more participants targeting a certain price level in that particular time horizon. This distribution also tells if there is unanimity (or disparity) among participants.
Each participant’s bias is calculated automatically based on the week’s close price and recent volatility. Drawing from those results, this chart calculates the distribution of bullish, bearish, and sideways forecast prices from all participants, informing about sentiment extremes, as well levels of indecision reflected in the number of “sideways”.
By displaying three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode), you can know if the average forecast is being skewed by any outlier among the poll participants.
In this chart, the close price is shifted behind so it corresponds to the date when the price for that week was forecasted. This enables the comparison between the average forecast price and the effective close price.
This chart tracks the percentage change between the close prices. Bouts of volatility (or extreme flat volatility) can be then compared to the typical outcome expressed through the averages.
This measure is basically an arithmetical average of the three central tendency measures (mean, median, and mode). It smooths the typical outcome eliminating any possible noise caused by outliers.
Together with the close price, this chart displays the minimum and maximum forecast prices collected among individual participants. The result is a price corridor, usually enveloping the weekly close price from above and below, and serves as a measure of volatility.
NZD/USD, THE “KIWI”
The NZD/USD pair, also called the “Kiwi”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one New Zealand dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the «Kiwi». Together with the Australian Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the NZD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country’s exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).
Along with the Australian Dollar, the NZD has been for many years a traditional vehicle for carry traders, which has made this currency also very sensitive to changes in interest rates.
FORECAST FOR 2017
FXStreet’s contributors, surveyed at the end of December 2016, expected the Kiwi to accelerate down in the second semester and be at 0,6400 by the end of 2017. See full forecast
Also take into account that New Zealand general election is scheduled to be held on Saturday 23 September 2017.
Some Extra information:
For the NZD, the market has thrown the towel in terms of expecting any more rate cuts
Growth Aces Research Team
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE NZD/USD
The organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the NZD/USD pair are:
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country.
- New Zealand Government and its Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, forum for 21 Pacific Rim member economies that promotes free trade throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates.
- Currencies: This group includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, EUR/GBP and USD/CHF
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